National Accounts Estimates
March 2009 Issue
Highlights 

YEAR 2008

GDP growth rate
1. Data now available on the various sectors of the economy show that GDP grew by 5.3%, slightly higher than the 5.2% growth estimated in December 2008, mostly due to higher growths in “Other agriculture” and “Food manufacturing”, partly offset by a lower growth in “Transport, storage and communications”. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate worked out to 5.4% compared to the previous estimate of 5.2%.

YEAR 2009

GDP growth rate
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy and measures announced in the stimulus package by Government in December 2008 to cushion the adverse effects of the international financial and economic crisis on our economy as well as delays noted in its implementation, the economy is now expected to grow by around 2.5% in 2009, lower than the forecast of 4.0% made in December 2008. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate would be around 2.4% compared to 3.8% forecasted in December 2008.

3. The main assumptions now used for the forecast are:

(i) Sugarcane/sugar milling: a production of 480,000 tonnes of sugar and increased exports of refined sugar, resulting in growth of 10.0% compared to 3.7% in 2008 when sugar production was 452,062 tonnes.

(ii) Other agriculture: The sector is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2009 compared to 8.8% in 2008, mainly as a result of support by government to increase the production of food in the context of food security, and the start of some aquaculture projects.
(iii) Manufacturing industries: to grow by around 0.1% compared to 3.2% in 2008. Within the sector,

a. “Food processing” would grow by 3.0% assuming increased activities of “Fish processing” and taking into account possible effects of measures put in place to support the Small and Medium Enterprises,
b. A negative growth of 7.5% is forecasted in “Textile” due to falling demand in our main markets namely Europe and US, and
c. “Other manufacturing” would grow by 2.4%, same as in 2008, taking into account possible effects of measures to support the Small and Medium Enterprises as well as the freezing for two years of the Government plan to lower import duties to make Mauritius a duty-free island.
Within the manufacturing sector the output of the Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) is expected to decline by 2.1% compared to a growth of 3.6% in 2008.

(iv) Construction: to grow at a lower rate of 2.0% as opposed to 11.1% in 2008. Public sector investment projects as announced in the stimulus package (e.g. road infrastructure, hospitals, airport, housing, and schools) will offset to some extent the negative growth expected in the private sector, the decline in the latter being due to completion of big investment projects partly mitigated by the start of some new ones (e.g. IRS, office buildings and medical school).

(v) Hotels and restaurants: the sector is expected to decline by 8.8% due to poor economic performances in our main markets. Tourist arrivals are expected to be around 835,000 compared to 930,456 in 2008.

(vi) Transport, storage and communications: to grow by 6.0%, lower than the 6.2% growth in 2008, mostly due to poor performances in air transport and tourism related activities, partly offset by better performances expected in the communications sector as a result of increases in ICT activities and decreases in internet tariffs.

(vii) Financial intermediation: to grow at a lower rate of 6.2%, compared to the 10.1% growth in 2008, due to expected reduction in investment flows to and through Mauritius.

(viii) Business activities: to grow by 8.0% compared to 10.8% in 2008, explained by lower activities expected in the global business industry as well as in property development, partly offset by expected increases in ICT activities.

(ix) Other sectors: growth rates based on trends observed during the last quarters of 2008.

Consumption and Saving

4. Final consumption expenditure of households and Government is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2009 compared to 6.0% in 2008. Saving rate defined as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, would decrease to 14.7% from 16.7% in 2008.

Investment

5. Investment in 2009 would grow by 1.5% compared to 3.2% in 2008. Exclusive of investment in aircraft and marine vessel, the growth would be 2.4% compared to 6.7% in 2008.

6. Investment rate would reach 24.5% in 2009, same as in 2008. Exclusive of investment on aircraft and marine vessel, the rate would be 24.5%, slightly higher than the figure of 24.3% in 2008.

7. Private sector investment is expected to decline by around 1.7% after a high growth of 9.1% in 2008, due to the completion of major projects (such as commercial and office buildings and hotel renovation) partly offset by some new ones (IRS, office buildings and medical school). Public sector investment is expected to grow by around 16.8% after a decline of 18.0% in 2008. This expected high growth will be the result of the speeding up of public sector investment projects as announced in the stimulus package (e.g. road infrastructure, renovation of hospitals and schools).

8. Private sector investment as a percentage of GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.7 in 2009 from 20.3 in 2008 and that of the public sector would increase to 4.8 from 4.2 in 2008.

9. The share of private sector investment would decrease to 80.2% from 82.8% in 2008 and that of the public sector would increase to 19.8% from 17.2%.

March 2009

 

More: National Accounts - March 2009 Issue

Introduction

Table 1 Main National Accounts aggregates, 2006 – 2009

Table 2 Growth rates and ratios, 2006 – 2009

Table 3 Gross Domestic Product by industry group at current basic prices, 2006 – 2009

Table 4 Value added by industry group at current basic prices for General Government, 2006 – 2009

Table 5 Value added, share in the economy and growth rate of selected sub-sectors of the economy, 2006 - 2009

Table 6 Percentage Distribution of Gross Domestic Product by industry group at current basic prices, 2006 – 2009

Table 7 Gross Domestic Product - sectoral real growth rates (% over previous year), 2006 – 2009

Table 8 Contribution of industry groups to GDP growth, 2006 – 2009

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product - sectoral deflators (% over previous year), 2006 – 2009

Table 10 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at current prices, 2006 – 2009

Table 11 Expenditure on GDP - Growth rates (% over previous year), 2006 – 2009

Table 12 National Disposable Income and its appropriation at current prices, 2006 – 2009

Table 13 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at current prices by type and use, 2006 – 2009

Table 14 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation - Annual real growth rates (%) by type and use, 2006 – 2009

Table 15 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation - Deflators (% over previous year), 2006 – 2009

Whole document in Pdf Format (932 KB)

Introduction in Word Format (615 KB) 

Table in Excel format (492 KB)


To download, please right-click the links and select "Save Target As" to save the files on your PC.
 

:: Home :: List of indicators :: National Accounts::