National Accounts Estimates–
June 2009 Issue
YEAR
2008
GDP growth rate
1. Latest information gathered on the various sectors of the economy indicates
that GDP growth for 2008 was 5.3%, same as estimated in March 2009. Exclusive
of sugar, the growth rate worked out to 5.3% compared to the previous estimate
of 5.4%.
YEAR
2009
GDP growth rate
2. On the basis of information gathered on key sectors of the economy, and
measures announced in the additional stimulus package and the last budget,
the 2.5% growth forecasted in March 2009 is maintained. Exclusive of sugar,
the growth rate would be around 2.3% compared to 2.4% forecasted in March
2009.
3.
The main assumptions used for the forecast are:
(i) Sugarcane/sugar milling: a production of 480,000 tonnes of sugar and increased
exports of refined sugar, resulting in growth of 10.0% compared to 3.7% in
2008 when sugar production was 452,062 tonnes.
(ii) Other agriculture: to grow by 5.0% in 2009 compared to 7.4% in 2008,
mainly as a result of support by government to increase the production of
food, in the context of food security and start of aquaculture projects. It
is to be noted that without government support, the growth would have been
lower than 5.0%.
(iii) Manufacturing industries: to grow by around 0.9% compared to 3.2% in
2008. Within the sector,
a. “Food processing” would grow by 3.0% assuming increased activities
of “Fish processing” and taking into account possible effects
of measures put in place to support the manufacturing sector, more specifically
the Small and Medium Enterprises,
b. A contraction of 5.0% is forecasted in “Textile” due to falling
demand in our main markets namely Europe and US, and
c. “Other manufacturing” would grow by 2.4%, same as in 2008,
taking into account possible effects of measures to support the manufacturing
sector, more specifically the Small and Medium Enterprises, as well as the
freezing for two years of the Government plan to lower import duties to make
Mauritius a duty-free island.
Within the manufacturing sector the output of the Export Oriented Enterprises
(EOE) is expected to decline by 0.9% compared to a growth of 3.6% in 2008.
(iv) Construction: to grow at a lower rate of 2.0% as opposed to 11.1% in
2008. Public sector investment projects as announced in the additional stimulus
package and the last budget (e.g. road infrastructure, hospitals, airport,
housing, and schools) will offset to some extent the negative growth expected
in the private sector; the decline in the latter being due to completion of
big investment projects partly mitigated by the start of some new ones (e.g.
IRS, office buildings, medical school and renovation of hotels).
(v) Hotels and restaurants: Based on tourist arrivals for the first quarter
of 2009, and the promotional campaigns by the various stakeholders and measures
taken by the relevant authorities to increase the number of tourist arrivals
(e.g. voyage sans passport), the sector is expected to register a decline
of 8.8%. Tourist arrivals are expected to be around 835,000 lower than the
930,456 arrivals in 2008, while tourist earnings would be R 38,173 million
compared to R 41,213 million in 2008.
(vi) Transport, storage and communications: to grow by 5.7% lower than the
6.2% growth in 2008, mostly due to expected poor performances in air transport
and tourism related activities, partly offset by better performances in the
communications sector as a result of increases in ICT activities and decreases
in internet tariffs.
(vii) Financial intermediation: to grow at a lower rate of 5.9%, compared
to 10.1% in 2008, due to lower growth expected in global business activities.
(viii) Business activities: to grow by 8.0% compared to 10.8% in 2008, explained
by lower activities expected in the global business industry as well as in
property development, partly offset by expected increases in ICT activities.
(ix) Other sectors: growth rates based on trends observed during the last
quarters of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.
Consumption
and Saving
4. Final consumption expenditure of households and Government is expected
to grow by 3.4% in 2009 compared to 6.0% in 2008. Saving rate defined as the
ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, would decrease to 14.3% from 16.8% in
2008.
Investment
5. Investment in 2009 would grow by 0.7% compared to 3.9% in 2008. Exclusive
of investment in aircraft and marine vessel, the growth would be 1.7% compared
to 7.5% in 2008.
6. Investment rate would reach 24.4% in 2009 compared to 24.6% in 2008. It
is to be noted that no investment in aircraft and marine vessel is expected
in 2009. Excluding aircraft and marine vessel, the investment rate in 2008
was 24.4%.
7. Private sector investment is expected to decline by around 2.3% after a high growth of 10.0% in 2008, due to the completion of major projects partly offset by some new ones such as IRS, office buildings, medical school and renovation of hotels. Public sector investment is expected to grow by around 15.3% after a decline of 17.9% in 2008. This expected high growth will be the result of the implementation of public sector investment projects (e.g. road infrastructure, renovation of hospitals and schools), as announced in the additional stimulus package and the last budget.
8. Private sector investment as a percentage of GDP at market prices would decrease to 19.6 in 2009 from 20.4 in 2008 and that of the public sector would increase to 4.7 from 4.2 in 2008.
9. The share of private sector investment would decrease to 80.4% from 82.9% in 2008 and that of the public sector would increase to 19.6% from 17.1%.
June 2009
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