Quarterly National Accounts –
First Quarter 2009
Quarterly
GDP
1. Throughout the period 2005 to 2008, the quarterly GDP follows the same
seasonal pattern every year. The production is relatively low in the first
quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the
last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.
Quarterly
growth rate by industry group
(i) Fourth quarter 2008 over fourth quarter 2007
2. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 over the corresponding quarter
of 2007 has been revised slightly downward to 4.2% compared to 4.3% as estimated
in March 2009. This downward revision is due to a lower growth in “Other
agriculture” (2.7% instead of 6.7%).
(ii)
First quarter 2009 over first quarter 2008
3. GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2009 over the corresponding quarter
of 2008 works out to 2.7% compared to a growth of 4.2% in the fourth quarter
of 2008 over the corresponding quarter of 2007. The main contributors to the
2.7% growth were “Manufacturing (1.3 percentage points), “Transport,
storage and communications” (0.8 percentage point), “Financial
intermediation” (0.7 percentage point) and “Real estate, renting
and business activities” (0.5 percentage point).
Quarterly
growth rates of components of expenditure
4. During the first quarter of 2009, total final consumption expenditure increased
by 3.1%, lower than the 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2008. The final
consumption expenditure of households grew by 3.4% in the first quarter of
2009 compared to 7.4% in the previous quarter while that of general government
increased by 1.6% following the growth of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
5. After the decline of 11.5% noted for the fourth quarter of 2008, investment picked up by 3.6% in the first quarter of 2009. This was the net result of a growth of 11.9% in “Machinery and equipment” and a decline of 0.6% in “Building and construction work”
6. The growth of 11.9% in “Machinery and equipment” in the first quarter of 2009 was the net result of a high growth in “Other machinery and equipment” (27.0%) and declines in “Passenger car” (-26.0%) and “Other transport equipment” (-2.5%). The 0.6% decline in “Building and construction work” was mainly attributable to negative growths in “Non residential buildings” (-0.5%) and “Other construction work” (-4.1%), partly offset by an increase in “Residential building” (1.4%).
7. Exports of goods and services contracted by a further 12.2% in the first quarter of 2009 following the decline of 13.7% noted in the previous quarter. This contraction is explained by decreases of 5.5% and 17.2% in exports of goods and exports of services respectively. Imports of goods and services declined by 12.8% during the first quarter of 2009 after an increase of 1.3% in the last quarter of 2008. This decline was the result of decreases in both imports of goods (-14.4%) and imports of services (-8.8%).
Quarter
to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
8. Quarter to quarter GDP growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data show
that the economy has continued to slow down from 0.6% in the fourth quarter
of 2008 to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2009.
June 2009
More: Quarterly National Accounts – First Quarter 2009
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