Quarterly National Accounts – Fourth Quarter 2011
Highlights

Quarterly GDP
1. Throughout the period 2008 to 2011, the quarterly GDP follows the same seasonal pattern every year. The production is relatively low in the first quarter, increases gradually in the two subsequent quarters and peaks in the last quarter before declining in the first quarter of the following year.

Quarterly growth rate by industry group
(i) Third quarter 2011 over third quarter 2010
2. GDP growth for the third quarter of 2011 over the corresponding quarter of 2010 has been revised upward to 3.9% instead of 3.7% as estimated in December 2011.

(ii) Fourth quarter 2011 over fourth quarter 2010
3. GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2011 over the corresponding quarter of 2010 is estimated at 2.4%. The main contributors to the 2.4% growth in GDP during the fourth quarter of 2011 were “Real estate, renting and business activities” (0.7 percentage point), “Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods” (0.5 percentage point) and “Financial intermediation” (0.5 percentage point).

Quarterly growth rates of components of expenditure
4. Total final consumption expenditure in real terms increased by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011, lower than the 2.4% growth registered for the third quarter of 2011 (Table 4). The final consumption expenditure of households grew by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to 2.5% in the previous quarter while that of general government declined by 0.9% as opposed to a growth of 2.1% noted for the third quarter of 2011.

5. Investment registered a growth of 12.9% during the fourth quarter of 2011 after the growth of 2.6% recorded in previous quarter. The growth of 12.9% is explained by the combined effect of growths of 31.2% and 6.3% in “Machinery and equipment” and “Building and construction work” respectively.

6. The growth of 31.2% in “Machinery and equipment” in the fourth quarter of 2011 is due to a high growth of 47.7% in “Other machinery and equipment” explained by the acquisition of power generating plant, and a growth of 2.5% in “Other transport equipment” partly offset by a decline of 5.6% in “Passenger car”. The growth of 6.3% in “Building and construction work” in the fourth quarter of 2011 is attributable to growths of 30.1% and 6.8% in “Residential building” and “Other construction work” respectively, partly offset by a decline of 14.8% in “Non-residential building”.

7. After a series of positive growths since fourth quarter of 2009, exports of goods and services contracted by 3.0% while imports of goods and services grew by 2.4% during the fourth quarter of 2011. The decline of 3.0% in exports of goods and services is attributable to a decrease of 8.1% in exports of goods partly offset by a growth of 1.5% in exports of services. The growth of 2.4% in imports of goods and services was due to growths of 3.3% and 0.3% in imports of goods and imports of services respectively.

Quarter to quarter GDP growth (based on seasonally adjusted GDP)
8. Quarter to quarter GDP growth rates based on seasonally adjusted data show that the economy grew by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to 1.1% in the third quarter of 2011 and to 1.4% in the corresponding fourth quarter of 2010.

March 2012

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