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Among
rural areas, Black River-rural and Plaines Wilhems-rural gained from
both urban and other rural regions while Savanne and Rodrigues lost to
both urban and other rural areas. Rivière
du Rempart, Flacq and Grand Port lost to urban but gained from rural
regions. A reverse
situation is noted in the districts of Pamplemousses and Moka.
Table
4.7 gives the sex ratio of the population and the net migrants by broad
age group. The sex ratio of
net migrants comes to 90 males to 100 females as compared with a sex
ratio of 98 males to 100 females for the total population aged 5 years
and above. This indicates that relatively more females moved away from
their residence five years before census date.
The difference is largest for the age-group 15-44 which includes
mostly all persons of marriageable age. As
expected, comparison of the age distribution of net migrants with that
of the total population aged 5 years and above shows that the proportion
of adults aged 15-44 is higher among net migrants, while the proportion
of the old-age population among migrants is relatively smaller.
This indicates that the propensity to migrate is higher among the
population of the age group 15 – 44 years and smaller for the old
population. The
age distribution of net migrants, as shown in Table 4.8, is roughly the
same from one district to another, except in a few cases where the
distribution is distorted by the size of the figures.
The preponderance of females occurs in most of the districts
except in Pamplemousses, Flacq and Black River, where there are more
males than females among net migrants.
So
far, consideration has been restricted to the direct question bearing on
migration, namely that based on usual residence at a given prior date.
It is now proposed to use data from the last two censuses on age
distribution and geographical areas to arrive at an estimate of
intercensal net migration. This
method will provide yet another estimate of net migration by district
for the ten year interval 1990-2000. The
basic information required is the number of persons classified by age
and sex as enumerated in each district at the 1990 and 2000 Censuses and
a set of survival ratios which can be applied to the population of the
1990 Census in order to derive an estimate of the number of persons
expected to survive at the 2000 Census. The difference between the
enumerated population at the 2000 Census and the expected population
gives an estimate of net migration for each district of the country. The
assumptions underlying the Survival Ratio technique are: (i)
the population is affected only by births and deaths and
not by external migration; (ii)
the specific mortality rates are the same for each district as
for the Republic of Mauritius; (iii)
fertility as measured by child woman ratio is same for all
districts of migration; (iv)
the ratio of the degree of "completeness" for
enumeration in each district (i.e. the proportion that any age-sex group
bears to the true population) to that of the Republic is the same for
the same cohort in both censuses. Table
4.9 gives the 1990 population of the Republic by age and sex along with
the 2000 population and the calculated Census Survival Ratios (C.S.R.).
Table 4.10 gives the age sex distribution by district in 1990 and
Table 4.11 gives the figures for 2000.
The
2000 expected population by age group, district and sex is obtained by
multiplying the 1990 population by the corresponding survival rates.
Comparing the expected with the enumerated, one gets the net
migration by age and sex as given in Table 4.12.
The method provides only net migration of those aged 10 years and
above in 2000 as it is possible to survive only those who are alive at
the earlier census for the ten years.
To obtain the estimated net migrants at younger ages, use is made
of the child woman ratios based on the latter count.
Two types of child woman ratios based respectively on children
aged 0-4 and 5-9 corresponding to women in the reproductive ages 15-44
and 20-49 are calculated. To
obtain the migrant children, one must keep in mind that there are two
streams of women who migrated during the 10 years; those aged 15-44 who
moved during 1990-1995 and those aged 15-44 who moved during 1995-2000.
Again, there are two possibilities - the women may have brought a
child with them or they had the child after the move in which case the
child is not a migrant. In
2000, a child aged 0-4 could be a migrant only if it was brought by the
woman aged 15-44 during the second half of the decade, whereas a child
aged 5-9 in 2000 could have either come with a woman aged 15-44 during
1990-1995 or with a woman aged 20-49 during 1995-2000.
Thus the chances for a child aged 0-4 to be a migrant is only
1/4. However for a child
aged 5-9 to be a migrant there are two possibilities.
He could have come with his mother when he was aged 0-4 during
the first half of the decade or he could have come when he was already
between ages 5-9 during the second half of the decade.
Thus, the chance for him to be a migrant is 3/4.
To obtain migrant children aged 0-4, the child woman ratio based
on children 0-4 is multiplied by estimated net migrant women aged 15-44
and this result is further multiplied by 1/4. Similarly children aged
5-9 are obtained by multiplying the child woman ratio based on children
aged 5-9 by net migrant women aged 20-49 and then multiplying the result
by 3/4. Using the result
already obtained, that is, net migrant women aged 15-44 and 20-49, the
child migrants are estimated and entered in Table 4.13.
From
the estimates obtained in Tables 4.12(a) and (b), it is observed that
Port-Louis and Grand Port lost male and female populations at all ages.
Port Louis, the main loser, lost 8,759 males and 9,681 females.
At the same time Plaines Wilhems and Black River gained male and
female populations at all ages. For the other districts, although some reverses are seen to
occur in certain age-groups (which may be due to problems in the data,
methodology, assumptions, etc), it is observed that on the whole
Rodrigues, Grand Port, Flacq and Savanne lost population while
Pamplemousses, Rivière du Rempart and Moka gained population. Considering net loss figures only, one can note that a total of around 13,400 males and 15,500 females of all ages moved from one district to the other during the intercensal period. The number of persons aged 5 years and over who moved during the period 1990-2000 worked out to around 13,000 males and 15,100 females, giving an average annual figure of about 1,300 males and 1,510 females during the intercensal period. Comparing this estimate with that of the 5-year migration where a net loss of about 720 males and 780 females (Table 4.4) is observed annually, it is clear that the tempo of migration should have decreased in the recent years. Table
4.9 - Population by age and sex, 1990 and 2000 and Census Survival Ratio
(C.S.R)
Table 4.10 : Population by sex, age-group and geographical district, 1990 Population Census Table 4.11 : Population by sex, age-group and geographical district, 2000 Population Census Table 4.12 : Estimated 1990-2000 inter censal migration by sex, district and age-group |
